macro · settles Oct 1, 2026

Federal government shutdown begins October 1

AI Baseline1.0%refreshed last week
Run Scenarios

Apply your estimate

Catalyst

Federal government shutdown begins October 1

settles Oct 1, 2026 · AI 1.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

settles Oct 28, 2026 · AI 1.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)0.7%▼ −0.3 pts

Contested sign via the data-blackout channel: a shutdown delays the releases the Fed needs to justify moving, so cut odds drop despite the growth hit.

refreshed 2 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

0.7%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 1.0%AI Projection 0.7%
Shutdown begins · Oct 1 → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC — Consequitur