macro · settles Oct 1, 2026

Federal government shutdown begins October 1

AI Baseline40.0%refreshed 6 hours ago
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Catalyst

Federal government shutdown begins October 1

settles Oct 1, 2026 · AI 40.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

settles Oct 28, 2026 · AI 14.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)10.8%▼ −3.2 pts

Contested sign via the data-blackout channel: a shutdown delays the releases the Fed needs to justify moving, so cut odds drop despite the growth hit.

refreshed 6 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

10.8%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 14.0%AI Projection 10.8%