macro · settles Oct 1, 2026
Federal government shutdown begins October 1
AI Baseline1.0%refreshed 12 hours ago
Each row is an event this one affects.
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC
settles Oct 28, 2026
Current 1.0%·AI if yes 0.7% ▼ −0.3 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC
settles Oct 28, 2026
Current 88.0%·AI if yes 81.2% ▼ −6.8 pts·You Click to add
| Affected event | If this event resolves YES | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Affected event | Current | AI | Yours |
| Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC settles Oct 28, 2026 | 1.0% | 0.7% ▼ −0.3 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC settles Oct 28, 2026 | 88.0% | 81.2% ▼ −6.8 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click an affected event's name to open it.