macro · settles Oct 28, 2026

Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC

AI Baseline99.0%refreshed 4 days ago
Run Scenarios
Fed > 3.75% · Oct FOMC resolves YES today → Fed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC 96.0% → 97.0% (+1 pts)▲ +1 ptsFed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC AI Baseline 99.0% — The AI's live standalone estimate that this event resolves YES, informed by market prices where a market exists. It is not computed from the arrows—those show how it would move, not where it comes from.Fed > 3.75% · Oct FOMCAI 99.0% · Oct 28, 2026Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the December FOMCFed > 3.75% · Dec FOMC ↗AI 96.0% · Dec 9, 2026

Inbound catalysts on the left, this event in the center, the events it influences on the right. Click any event name to re-root the network there; click a connecting curve to apply your estimate to that dependency.

Each value shows how this event's probability would shift if that catalyst resolved YES today. Shifts are separate what-ifs—they don't add together. To ask what happens when several move at once, use Scenarios.

Read the methodology