Resolved events
Events that have settled. Each shows its realized outcome, not the AI estimate it carried while live. They stay openable for reference but no longer appear in the live graph.
- Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in May (June 10 release)resolved Jun 10, 2026OutcomeNO
- Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the June FOMCresolved Jun 17, 2026OutcomeNO
- Payrolls below +100k in June (July 2 release)resolved Jul 2, 2026OutcomeYES
- Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in June (July 14 release)resolved Jul 14, 2026OutcomeNO
- Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMCresolved Jul 29, 2026OutcomeNO
- US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1resolved Jul 9, 2026OutcomeNO
- Payrolls below +100k in August (September 4 release)resolved Sep 4, 2026OutcomeNO
- Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in August (September 11 release)resolved Sep 11, 2026OutcomeYES
- Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11resolved Sep 11, 2026OutcomeYES
- Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMCresolved Sep 16, 2026OutcomeNO
- Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the September FOMCresolved Sep 16, 2026OutcomeYES
- Federal government shutdown begins October 1resolved Oct 1, 2026OutcomeNO
- Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release)resolved Oct 2, 2026OutcomeYES
- Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)resolved Oct 14, 2026OutcomeYES