Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4

A new US-Iran nuclear deal would carry sanctions relief on Iranian crude exports, adding barrels to a market whose current premium is driven by disrupted Gulf supply. Conditional on a deal being agreed before 1 December, the probability of front-month Brent settling at or above $100 on 4 December falls from 0.19 to roughly 0.10. The direction and rough magnitude carry over from the retiring ceasefire-to-Brent edges, which were seeded at approximately -0.64 in June and whose sign was corroborated this month when the ceasefire failed and crude rose.

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If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?