macro · settles Dec 4, 2026

Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4

AI Baseline28.0%refreshed yesterday
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Move a catalyst's probability and watch the chain ripple up to the target's projection. Adjustments use your applied estimates where you have them and the AI's edge sensitivities everywhere else. Nothing here is saved—share the URL to keep a scenario.

Value source●Your value — you set this directly◐Modeled — moved by your upstream reads△AI baseline

Target · Projected

Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4

settles Dec 4, 2026

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28.0%
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Read the methodology to see how propagation and source attribution work.