macro · settles Dec 4, 2026
Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4
AI Baseline20.0%refreshed last week
Each row is a catalyst of this event.
US-Iran nuclear deal agreed before December 1
settles Dec 1, 2026
Current 6.0%·AI if yes 10.6% ▼ −9.4 pts·You Click to add
| Catalyst | This event — if the catalyst resolved YES today | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Catalyst | Current | AI | Yours |
| US-Iran nuclear deal agreed before December 1 settles Dec 1, 2026 | 6.0% | 10.6% ▼ −9.4 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click a catalyst name to open that event. Each AI projection is a separate what-if—the shifts don't add together.