macro · settles Dec 4, 2026
Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4
AI Baseline46.0%refreshed 6 hours ago
Each row is a catalyst of this event.
US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1
settles Sep 1, 2026
Current 44.0%·AI if yes 31.0% ▼ −15.0 pts·You Click to add
| Catalyst | This event — if the catalyst resolved YES today | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Catalyst | Current | AI | Yours |
| US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1 settles Sep 1, 2026 | 44.0% | 31.0% ▼ −15.0 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click a catalyst name to open that event. Each AI projection is a separate what-if—the shifts don't add together.