macro · settles Dec 4, 2026

Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4

AI Baseline20.0%refreshed last week
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Catalyst

Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4

settles Dec 4, 2026 · AI 20.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 5.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)2.6%▼ −2.4 pts

Oil still above 100 in December is the hike camp's scenario; cut odds compress materially.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

2.6%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 5.0%AI Projection 2.6%