macro · settles Dec 4, 2026

Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4

AI Baseline28.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1

settles Sep 1, 2026 · AI 55.0%

Target

Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4

settles Dec 4, 2026 · AI 28.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)17.0%▼ −11.0 pts

Same channel with more time for supply response either way.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

17.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 28.0%AI Projection 17.0%