macro · settles Oct 14, 2026

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)

AI Baseline36.0%refreshed last week
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Catalyst

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)

settles Oct 14, 2026 · AI 36.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

settles Oct 28, 2026 · AI 1.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)0.6%▼ −0.4 pts

Hot September print pushes the cut toward December.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

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0.6%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 1.0%AI Projection 0.6%