macro · settles Oct 14, 2026

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)

AI Baseline40.0%refreshed yesterday
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Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Sep resolves YES today → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC 17.0% → 10.3% (−7 pts)▼ −7 ptsCore CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release) AI Baseline 40.0% — The AI's live standalone estimate that this event resolves YES, informed by market prices where a market exists. It is not computed from the arrows—those show how it would move, not where it comes from.Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · SepAI 40.0% · Oct 14, 2026Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMCFed ≤ 3.50% · Oct FOMC ↗AI 17.0% · Oct 28, 2026

Inbound catalysts on the left, this event in the center, the events it influences on the right. Click any event name to re-root the network there; click a connecting curve to apply your estimate to that dependency.

Each value shows how this event's probability would shift if that catalyst resolved YES today. Shifts are separate what-ifs—they don't add together. To ask what happens when several move at once, use Scenarios.

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