Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC

A lapse in appropriations is contractionary and suspends the federal statistical releases the Committee reads, both of which argue for holding rather than moving. Against a marginal of 0.61 for the target and 0.12 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -0.5274 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.6277 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?