macro · settles Oct 28, 2026
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC
AI Baseline88.0%refreshed 12 hours ago
Each row is a catalyst of this event.
Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release)
settles Oct 2, 2026
Current 69.0%·AI if yes 85.2% ▼ −2.8 pts·You Click to add
Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)
settles Oct 14, 2026
Current 36.0%·AI if yes 93.4% ▲ +5.4 pts·You Click to add
Federal government shutdown begins October 1
settles Oct 1, 2026
Current 1.0%·AI if yes 81.2% ▼ −6.8 pts·You Click to add
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the September FOMC
settles Sep 16, 2026
Current 81.0%·AI if yes 98.9% ▲ +10.9 pts·You Click to add
| Catalyst | This event — if the catalyst resolved YES today | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Catalyst | Current | AI | Yours |
| Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release) settles Oct 2, 2026 | 69.0% | 85.2% ▼ −2.8 pts | Click to add |
| Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release) settles Oct 14, 2026 | 36.0% | 93.4% ▲ +5.4 pts | Click to add |
| Federal government shutdown begins October 1 settles Oct 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 81.2% ▼ −6.8 pts | Click to add |
| Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the September FOMC settles Sep 16, 2026 | 81.0% | 98.9% ▲ +10.9 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click a catalyst name to open that event. Each AI projection is a separate what-if—the shifts don't add together.