Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC

Stored beta +1.8985 against a ceiling of +0.6931 at current marginals: at P(A) = 0.99 and P(B) = 0.98 there is no conditional probability the stored value can represent, because it implies a P(B|A) above 1. Nobody moved the edge -- its own marginals drifted into it as the October and December Fed contracts both converged toward certainty. Re-seeded from a stated conditional: if the Fed's upper target is above 3.75% after the October meeting, the probability it is still above 3.75% after December is 0.985 -- the December meeting would have to cut through the floor for it not to be, and the December book itself prices that at roughly 0.02. That gives beta = logit(0.985) - logit(0.98) = +0.29, and the residual P(B|not A) = 0.485, which is a coherent probability and reads correctly: if October has already cut below the threshold, December is close to a coin flip on being back above it.

refreshed 4 days ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?