Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC

Level persistence: if the upper bound is above 3.75% after October it remains so in December unless the Committee cuts, which the December decision market prices at roughly 5.5%. Against a marginal of 0.74 for the target and 0.61 for the source, that implies a conditional probability of 0.95, and a coefficient of +1.8985 in log-odds. The seed is derived from the two marginals and the stated conditional rather than assumed, so it is arithmetically consistent with both published values.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?