macro · settles Jun 17, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the June FOMC

AI Baseline2.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the June FOMC

settles Jun 17, 2026 · AI 2.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC

settles Jul 29, 2026 · AI 6.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)95.0%▲ +89.0 pts

Level ratchet: once the first cut lands, reversal requires a hike. A June no-cut leaves July needing its own case.

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Target AI Baseline 6.0%AI Projection 95.0%