macro · settles Jul 29, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC

AI Baseline6.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Payrolls below +100k in June (July 2 release)

settles Jul 2, 2026 · AI 28.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC

settles Jul 29, 2026 · AI 6.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)13.0%▲ +7.0 pts

A sub-100k June print is the one data point that could pull a cut forward to July.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

13.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 6.0%AI Projection 13.0%