macro · settles Jul 29, 2026
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC
AI Baseline6.0%refreshed yesterday
Each row is a catalyst of this event.
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the June FOMC
settles Jun 17, 2026
Current 2.0%·AI if yes 95.0% ▲ +89.0 pts·You Click to add
Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in June (July 14 release)
settles Jul 14, 2026
Current 45.0%·AI if yes 3.0% ▼ −3.0 pts·You Click to add
Payrolls below +100k in June (July 2 release)
settles Jul 2, 2026
Current 28.0%·AI if yes 13.0% ▲ +7.0 pts·You Click to add
| Catalyst | This event — if the catalyst resolved YES today | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Catalyst | Current | AI | Yours |
| Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the June FOMC settles Jun 17, 2026 | 2.0% | 95.0% ▲ +89.0 pts | Click to add |
| Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in June (July 14 release) settles Jul 14, 2026 | 45.0% | 3.0% ▼ −3.0 pts | Click to add |
| Payrolls below +100k in June (July 2 release) settles Jul 2, 2026 | 28.0% | 13.0% ▲ +7.0 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click a catalyst name to open that event. Each AI projection is a separate what-if—the shifts don't add together.