macro · settles Jul 29, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC

AI Baseline6.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in June (July 14 release)

settles Jul 14, 2026 · AI 45.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC

settles Jul 29, 2026 · AI 6.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)3.0%▼ −3.0 pts

Hot June print closes July; cool print makes July merely unlikely instead of dead.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

3.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 6.0%AI Projection 3.0%
Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Jun → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Jul FOMC — Consequitur