macro · settles Sep 16, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC

AI Baseline13.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC

settles Jul 29, 2026 · AI 6.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the September FOMC

settles Sep 16, 2026 · AI 13.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)96.0%▲ +83.0 pts

Ratchet forward; if no cut by July, September remains the first live window.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

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96.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 13.0%AI Projection 96.0%