macro · settles Oct 28, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

AI Baseline17.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)

settles Oct 14, 2026 · AI 40.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

settles Oct 28, 2026 · AI 17.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)10.3%▼ −6.7 pts

Hot September print pushes the cut toward December.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

10.3%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 17.0%AI Projection 10.3%