macro · settles Oct 28, 2026
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC
AI Baseline1.0%refreshed 2 hours ago
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Catalyst
Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)settles Oct 14, 2026 · AI 36.0%
AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)0.6%▼ −0.4 pts
Hot September print pushes the cut toward December.
refreshed 2 hours ago
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
0.6%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 1.0%AI Projection 0.6%