macro · settles Dec 9, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

AI Baseline18.0%refreshed 6 hours ago
Run Scenarios

Apply your estimate

Catalyst

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release)

settles Nov 10, 2026 · AI 40.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 18.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)10.0%▼ −8.0 pts

Anchor's CPI slot: a hot October print is the strongest single data argument for holding through December.

refreshed 6 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

10.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 18.0%AI Projection 10.0%
Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC — Consequitur