macro · settles Dec 9, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

AI Baseline25.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release)

settles Nov 10, 2026 · AI 40.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 25.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)14.5%▼ −10.5 pts

Anchor's CPI slot: a hot October print is the strongest single data argument for holding through December.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

14.5%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 25.0%AI Projection 14.5%