macro · settles Dec 9, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

AI Baseline5.0%refreshed 12 hours ago
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Catalyst

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release)

settles Nov 10, 2026 · AI 37.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 5.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)2.6%▼ −2.4 pts

Anchor's CPI slot: a hot October print is the strongest single data argument for holding through December.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

2.6%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 5.0%AI Projection 2.6%
Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Oct → Fed ≤ 3.50% · Dec FOMC — Consequitur