macro · settles Dec 9, 2026
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC
AI Baseline25.0%refreshed yesterday
Each row is a catalyst of this event.
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC
settles Oct 28, 2026
Current 17.0%·AI if yes 95.6% ▲ +70.6 pts·You Click to add
Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release)
settles Nov 10, 2026
Current 40.0%·AI if yes 14.5% ▼ −10.5 pts·You Click to add
Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)
settles Dec 4, 2026
Current 35.0%·AI if yes 42.3% ▲ +17.3 pts·You Click to add
Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4
settles Dec 4, 2026
Current 28.0%·AI if yes 14.5% ▼ −10.5 pts·You Click to add
Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative
settles Oct 29, 2026
Current 15.0%·AI if yes 55.7% ▲ +30.7 pts·You Click to add
A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1
settles Dec 1, 2026
Current 4.0%·AI if yes 67.0% ▲ +42.0 pts·You Click to add
SPY closes below $650 before December 1
settles Dec 1, 2026
Current 18.0%·AI if yes 51.4% ▲ +26.4 pts·You Click to add
| Catalyst | This event — if the catalyst resolved YES today | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Catalyst | Current | AI | Yours |
| Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC settles Oct 28, 2026 | 17.0% | 95.6% ▲ +70.6 pts | Click to add |
| Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in October (November 10 release) settles Nov 10, 2026 | 40.0% | 14.5% ▼ −10.5 pts | Click to add |
| Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release) settles Dec 4, 2026 | 35.0% | 42.3% ▲ +17.3 pts | Click to add |
| Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4 settles Dec 4, 2026 | 28.0% | 14.5% ▼ −10.5 pts | Click to add |
| Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative settles Oct 29, 2026 | 15.0% | 55.7% ▲ +30.7 pts | Click to add |
| A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1 settles Dec 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 67.0% ▲ +42.0 pts | Click to add |
| SPY closes below $650 before December 1 settles Dec 1, 2026 | 18.0% | 51.4% ▲ +26.4 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click a catalyst name to open that event. Each AI projection is a separate what-if—the shifts don't add together.