macro · settles Dec 9, 2026
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC
AI Baseline25.0%refreshed yesterday
Apply your estimate
AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)14.5%▼ −10.5 pts
Oil still above 100 in December is the hike camp's scenario; cut odds compress materially.
refreshed yesterday
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
14.5%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 25.0%AI Projection 14.5%