macro · settles Dec 9, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

AI Baseline5.0%refreshed 12 hours ago
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Catalyst

Q3 2026 advance GDP print is negative

settles Oct 29, 2026 · AI 15.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 5.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)16.6%▲ +11.6 pts

A negative advance print lands six weeks before the December meeting; a cut becomes the clear base case.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

16.6%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 5.0%AI Projection 16.6%