macro · settles Dec 9, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

AI Baseline25.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)

settles Dec 4, 2026 · AI 35.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 25.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)42.3%▲ +17.3 pts

Weak November payrolls four days before the December meeting make a cut better than a coin flip against the re-struck anchor.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

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42.3%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 25.0%AI Projection 42.3%