macro · settles Dec 9, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

AI Baseline1.0%refreshed 3 hours ago
Run Scenarios

Apply your estimate

Catalyst

Payrolls below +100k in November (December 4 release)

settles Dec 4, 2026 · AI 55.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 1.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)2.2%▲ +1.2 pts

Weak November payrolls four days before the December meeting make a cut better than a coin flip against the re-struck anchor.

refreshed 3 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

2.2%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 1.0%AI Projection 2.2%