macro · settles Dec 9, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

AI Baseline5.0%refreshed 12 hours ago
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Catalyst

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMC

settles Oct 28, 2026 · AI 1.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 5.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)77.6%▲ +72.6 pts

Anchor's series-rule FOMC slot. No cut by October still leaves a December window: ~19%, matching the market-implied F5-F4 gap.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

77.6%
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Target AI Baseline 5.0%AI Projection 77.6%