macro · settles Dec 9, 2026
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC
AI Baseline25.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the October FOMCsettles Oct 28, 2026 · AI 17.0%
AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)95.6%▲ +70.6 pts
Anchor's series-rule FOMC slot. No cut by October still leaves a December window: ~19%, matching the market-implied F5-F4 gap.
refreshed yesterday
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
95.6%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 25.0%AI Projection 95.6%