macro · settles Dec 9, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

AI Baseline25.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

SPY closes below $650 before December 1

settles Dec 1, 2026 · AI 18.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 25.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)51.4%▲ +26.4 pts

The contested edge: does the Fed put exist at current inflation? Seeded toward yes-it-does; disagreement expected.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

51.4%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 25.0%AI Projection 51.4%