macro · settles Dec 9, 2026

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

AI Baseline25.0%refreshed yesterday
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Catalyst

A US bank above $50B in assets enters FDIC receivership before December 1

settles Dec 1, 2026 · AI 4.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the December FOMC

settles Dec 9, 2026 · AI 25.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)67.0%▲ +42.0 pts

Acute bank stress historically forces easing regardless of the inflation picture.

refreshed yesterday

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

your estimate

67.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 25.0%AI Projection 67.0%