macro · settles Sep 1, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1
AI Baseline55.0%refreshed yesterday
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AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)20.0%▼ −12.0 pts
Ceasefire holding through September unwinds most of the premium; collapse re-prices toward escalation.
refreshed yesterday
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
20.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 32.0%AI Projection 20.0%