macro · settles Sep 1, 2026

US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1

AI Baseline44.0%refreshed 6 hours ago
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Catalyst

US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1

settles Sep 1, 2026 · AI 44.0%

Target

Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11

settles Sep 11, 2026 · AI 43.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)28.6%▼ −14.4 pts

Ceasefire holding through September unwinds most of the premium; collapse re-prices toward escalation.

refreshed 6 hours ago

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28.6%
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Target AI Baseline 43.0%AI Projection 28.6%