macro · settles Sep 1, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1
AI Baseline55.0%refreshed yesterday
Each row is an event this one affects.
Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11
settles Sep 11, 2026
Current 32.0%·AI if yes 20.0% ▼ −12.0 pts·You Click to add
Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4
settles Dec 4, 2026
Current 28.0%·AI if yes 17.0% ▼ −11.0 pts·You Click to add
| Affected event | If this event resolves YES | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Affected event | Current | AI | Yours |
| Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11 settles Sep 11, 2026 | 32.0% | 20.0% ▼ −12.0 pts | Click to add |
| Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4 settles Dec 4, 2026 | 28.0% | 17.0% ▼ −11.0 pts | Click to add |
Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click an affected event's name to open it.