macro · settles Sep 1, 2026

US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1

AI Baseline44.0%refreshed 6 hours ago

Each row is an event this one affects.

Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on September 11
settles Sep 11, 2026
Current 43.0%·AI if yes 28.6% −14.4 pts·You Click to add
Brent crude closes at $100 or higher on December 4
settles Dec 4, 2026
Current 46.0%·AI if yes 31.0% −15.0 pts·You Click to add

Your Projection shows only the dependencies you've estimated—never inferred, never auto-filled. Click an affected event's name to open it.

Read the methodology