macro · settles Sep 1, 2026
US-Iran ceasefire holds through September 1
AI Baseline55.0%refreshed yesterday
Apply your estimate
AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)17.0%▼ −11.0 pts
Same channel with more time for supply response either way.
refreshed yesterday
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
17.0%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 28.0%AI Projection 17.0%