Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release)

A September payrolls print at or above 100,000 would remove the principal argument against continued tightening by the October meeting. Against a marginal of 0.61 for the target and 0.82 for the source, that implies a conditional probability of 0.55, and a coefficient of -0.2437 in log-odds. The seed is derived from the two marginals and the stated conditional rather than assumed, so it is arithmetically consistent with both published values.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?