Payrolls below +100k in September (October 2 release)

A September payrolls print at or above 100,000 would remove the principal argument against continued tightening by the October meeting. Against a marginal of 0.61 for the target and 0.82 for the source, that implies a conditional probability of 0.55, and a coefficient of -0.2437 in log-odds. The seed is derived from the two marginals and the stated conditional rather than assumed, so it is arithmetically consistent with both published values.

refreshed 3 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?