macro · settles Oct 1, 2026
Federal government shutdown begins October 1
AI Baseline1.0%refreshed last week
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AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)98.3%▼ −0.7 pts
A lapse in appropriations is contractionary and suspends the federal statistical releases the Committee reads, both of which argue for holding rather than moving. Against a marginal of 0.61 for the target and 0.12 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of -0.5274 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.6277 for the target when the source does not occur.
refreshed 2 hours ago
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
98.3%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 99.0%AI Projection 98.3%