macro · settles Oct 14, 2026

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)

AI Baseline36.0%refreshed 3 hours ago
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Catalyst

Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)

settles Oct 14, 2026 · AI 36.0%

Target

Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC

settles Oct 28, 2026 · AI 99.0%

AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)99.5%▲ +0.5 pts

A hot September core print two weeks before the October meeting would make holding above 3.75% substantially more likely. Against a marginal of 0.61 for the target and 0.36 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of +0.6513 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.5312 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 3 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?

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99.5%
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Target AI Baseline 99.0%AI Projection 99.5%
Core CPI ≥ 0.3% · Sep → Fed > 3.75% · Oct FOMC — Consequitur