Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)

A hot September core print two weeks before the October meeting would make holding above 3.75% substantially more likely. Against a marginal of 0.61 for the target and 0.36 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of +0.6513 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.5312 for the target when the source does not occur.

refreshed 12 hours ago

If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?