macro · settles Oct 28, 2026
Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after the October FOMC
AI Baseline88.0%refreshed 12 hours ago
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Catalyst
Core CPI rises 0.3% or more in September (October 14 release)settles Oct 14, 2026 · AI 36.0%
AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)93.4%▲ +5.4 pts
A hot September core print two weeks before the October meeting would make holding above 3.75% substantially more likely. Against a marginal of 0.61 for the target and 0.36 for the source, that conditional implies a coefficient of +0.6513 in log-odds, and a probability of 0.5312 for the target when the source does not occur.
refreshed 12 hours ago
If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
your estimate
93.4%
0%100%
Target AI Baseline 88.0%AI Projection 93.4%