macro · settles Jul 29, 2026
Fed funds upper bound at or below 3.50% after the July FOMC
AI Baseline6.0%refreshed yesterday
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AI Projection · P(target | catalyst = YES)95.0%▲ +89.0 pts
Level ratchet: once the first cut lands, reversal requires a hike. A June no-cut leaves July needing its own case.
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If the catalyst resolved YES today, what's the probability of the target?
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95.0%
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Target AI Baseline 6.0%AI Projection 95.0%